It’s almost certain that Utah will have a new U.S. Senator next year.

Three-term incumbent Robert Bennett sought a fourth term, but despite his generally conservative voting record and endorsementa from Mitt Romney and the National Rifle Association, he didn’t get enough votes at the state Republican convention to get on the primary ballot.

Given that Utah is about as red as a state can get, the GOP primary winner, either Mike Lee or Tim Bridgweater, will almost certainly be the next senator. There is a Democratic nominee, Sam Granato, who chairs the state liquor commission.

State election rules prevent Bennett from running as an independent in November, although a write-in campaign is a possibility.